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Nomura: A Lurch To The Right?


Nomura note that “polls suggest Spain is widely expected to elect a right-wing government on Sunday. Financial markets have so far been contained, with equity markets at the margin potentially seeing it as a positive.”

  • “Could a change in government scupper Europe’s decision on new fiscal rules? This, in our view, is the biggest and most important risk emanating from these elections. Moreover, should the far-right increase its share of the vote in these elections, as well as during the Dutch snap elections in November, it could be a signal of what is to come in European Parliament elections next year.”
  • “Beyond this, we expect a likely change in government to neither have an effect on financial markets nor materially affect Spain’s fiscal stance. At the margin, we could envisage a pro-business right-wing government potentially resulting in stronger business investment.”
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