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Nomura Delay Call For End of BoJ YCC By Six Months

JAPAN
  • Nomura revise their BoJ view and now see the BoJ as likely to abandon yield curve control in Q4 2024, while the exit from NIRP will likely be postponed to 2025 or later.
  • This call is delayed by six months from their prior view - after confirming wage growth in the shunto as well as the recovery of the post-shunto economy.
  • They expect the economy to remain on a recovery path, while Q4'23 and Q1'24 may see a temporary, shallow contraction in real GDP growth.
  • They see core CPI continuing to decline to around 1% Y/Y toward mid-'24 due mainly to a decline in USD/JPY, a fall in oil prices and a slower pass-through of food-related prices.

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