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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Nomura N.American hd of rate research George Goncalves eyed Wed
8:30am ET Nov Tsy Refunding announcemt, expects Nov refunding to have $62B total
supply: new $24B 3Y auction, $23B 10Y auction and $15B 30Y bond auction.
- He adds on dealer refunding questns as follows: "Do you believe the current
financing schedule is well-suited to meet Tsy's financing needs though the end
of FY2018? FY2019?"
- Goncalves projects a budget deficit around $650bn in FY2018 and $850bn in
FY2019. "The FY2018 projection includes about $65bn of additional deficit on the
back of tax reform, with tax cuts and spending increases likely starting to
materialize in early-to-mid 2018. "
- "For FY2019, tax reform will likely have a full-year impact of adding about
$130bn to the deficit," he said. "To finance the fiscal stimulus as well as
Fed's balance-sheet UST roll-offs, we have been advocating an across-the-board
approach where auction sizes on all tenors increase. The aim would be to keep
WAMs increasing (a potentially introduction of a new maturity pts in the lng-end
wd help here too)."