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US TSYS/3Y: Nomura Securities' N.American head of rate research George Goncalves
and analysts Stanley Sun and Penglu Zhao eyed today's 1pm ET US$24B 3Y auction
and said they "think demand for the 3yr could be a litmus test to see if strong
demand for the front end starts to lose momentum."
- They cited auction advantages such as that "foreign central banks continue to
show strong interest in USTs, which could be supportive for front-end supply.
Carry investors may also be interested in the 3yr which offers the most
attractive carry and rolldown value amid the low vol environment."
- They also eyed auction disadvantages such as that 3Y "valuations are still
rich versus OIS and FF, especially as the Fed may start balance sheet tapering
soon." And "the latest job report has been restoring some confidence in wage
inflation, which may further dampen front-end demand," they said.