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Nomura Upgrade China GDP Call


Nomura note that “due largely to higher-than-expected Q1 GDP growth, ongoing strength in domestic services consumption, upside surprises in exports, we raise our 2023 annual GDP growth forecast to 5.9% from 5.3%. Despite the upward revision, we expect sequential growth to have already peaked at 2.2% Q/Q in Q1 and to likely moderate to 1.5%, 1.0% and 0.9% in Q2-Q4. Accordingly, we forecast year-on-year GDP growth to rise further to 8.4% in Q2 on a low base owing to Shanghai’s lockdown last year, and then slow to 5.3% in Q3 and 5.6% in Q4. We maintain around 1.1% quarterly sequential growth forecast and 4.4% annual GDP growth for 2024.”

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MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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