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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE
Q3 euro area GDP fell 0.1% q/q to be flat on the year as the economy has stagnated for the last year. There hasn’t been two consecutive quarters of falling growth yet and in the euro area a recession is dated by the EABCN business cycle dating committee. While it is likely growth will continue to stagnate over the coming quarters, there is a non-negligible risk of recession which is likely to be monitored closely by the ECB especially as inflation approaches the 2% target.
- One of our recession probability estimates for 6 months ahead is signalling that there is the risk of a recession from around the turn of the year until at least Q2. The probability from 1998 has been above the 50% signal since July and was as high as 71% in September. It moderated to 55% in November, as real oil prices and economic sentiment indicator outweighed the yield curve and real equity prices.
- The calculated recession probability from 1985 has remained very low all year at under 20%.
- It is worth noting that econometric calculations are only estimates and not predictions.
Euro area recession in 6 months probability estimates
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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