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Recession Consensus Mounts: "Growth Recession" Views (1/4)


Outlook Remains Bearish


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EURO-NOK: Nordea suggest that EUR/NOK's upside break of NOK9.62 "may lead to a
rapid move towards NOK9.80. We are long EUR/NOK into year-end and close our long
NOK/SEK. A plummeting oil price and weakening consumption growth suddenly speaks
in favour of a downwards revision of the rate path by Norges Bank in December.
Just a month ago several factors argued in favour of a hawkish December path.
Usually the structural liquidity tide turns right about now, meaning that the
Norwegian commercial banking system will be flooded with cheap NOK liquidity
over year-turn. This is an underappreciated driver of the sluggish December NOK
seasonality. The housing market is another renewed concern for the NOK."
- Nordea's long EUR/NOK position targets "at least a move to NOK9.80 before
year-end but don't rule out a move of >5% over the next 1-1.5 months."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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