Nordic August Closes at July Low

The Nordic August baseload power contract closed at its lowest this month on 8 July as European power markets gave back gains amid TTF prices flipping red in the previous session. The contract could continue downward – once it becomes liquid – as TTF prices are slightly down on the day, with the Germany rangebound and the likelihood of limiting cooling demand also adding pressure.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 closed down 2.4% at 31 EUR/MWh on 8 July.
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 0.1% at 72.49 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 68.74 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.3% at 32.205 EUR/MWh
• Swedish utility Vattenfall has slightly extended the outage at its 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 by 4 hrs, with the unit expected to return on 9 July at 14:00 CET.
• Closer in, precipitation across Norway has been slightly revised down over 10-11 July – albeit still reaching as high as 18mm on Wednesday, according to ECMWF – likely supporting hydro stocks. Rainfall in the country will vary from 0.8-16mm over 12-18 July.
• And average temperatures across the Nordics are forecast to be above the 30-year norm of around 17C over 9-18 July – with temperatures reaching as high as 19C over the period. Max temperatures are expected to climb to a high of about 23.5C – possibly limited cooling demand.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 24% load factor, or 1.28GW on 10 July – which could weigh on power prices on delivery –, with the wind over 11-12 July between 0.409-0.88GW – possibly adding some support to delivery costs.