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POWER: Nordic Curve Could Face Downward Pressure on Wetter Outlook, Temps

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure despite February trading slightly up on the day— amid a strong upward revision of Norway’s hydro balance compared to previous forecasts, with Sweden’s up just marginally — lowering supply risks. Temperatures in the Nordics are also expected to flip above the 30-year norm from 13 January until 22 January, while the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 will return on 27 January.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 up 0.5% at 38.2 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 down 1.2% at 100.45 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 down 1.4% at 104.88 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.3% at 73.83 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 down 0.4% at 47.3 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be much higher over 13-22 Jan, with upward revisions seen as high as around 2.1GWh from previous forecasts. The balance anticipated at +14.75TWh on 22 Jan compared to +12.54TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +6.41TWh on 22 Jan compared to +6.27TWh in the previous estimate.
  • However, Rainfall in the Nordics over 8-22 Jan will see below-normal precipitation – which could decrease flows into the reservoirs.
  • But average temperatures in the region will be between minus 1.8C and 3.11C over 13-22 Jan compared to the norm of around -1.8C.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.445GW on 9 Jan, or an 8% load factor down from today's 0.942GW forecast, which could place upward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 89% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 10 of the 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure despite February trading slightly up on the day— amid a strong upward revision of Norway’s hydro balance compared to previous forecasts, with Sweden’s up just marginally — lowering supply risks. Temperatures in the Nordics are also expected to flip above the 30-year norm from 13 January until 22 January, while the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 will return on 27 January.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 up 0.5% at 38.2 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 down 1.2% at 100.45 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 down 1.4% at 104.88 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.3% at 73.83 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 down 0.4% at 47.3 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be much higher over 13-22 Jan, with upward revisions seen as high as around 2.1GWh from previous forecasts. The balance anticipated at +14.75TWh on 22 Jan compared to +12.54TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +6.41TWh on 22 Jan compared to +6.27TWh in the previous estimate.
  • However, Rainfall in the Nordics over 8-22 Jan will see below-normal precipitation – which could decrease flows into the reservoirs.
  • But average temperatures in the region will be between minus 1.8C and 3.11C over 13-22 Jan compared to the norm of around -1.8C.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.445GW on 9 Jan, or an 8% load factor down from today's 0.942GW forecast, which could place upward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 89% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 10 of the 11 units are still online.