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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Could Drop, Resists Gains in TTF, German Power

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve could trade in red to resist gains in TTF and German power amid an upward revision of temperatures in the region and stronger hydro balances in Norway and Sweden. Spot prices are likely to be elevated tomorrow as wind is expected to drop slightly on the day.

  • Nordic Base Power APR 25 closed down 3.4% at 28.8 EUR/MWh on 10 March
  • Germany Base Power APR 25 up 0.7% at 77.85 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.2% at 69.16 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas APR 25 up 1.7% at 41.94 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 21-25 March, with the balance anticipated at +9.58TWh on 25 March compared to +9.43TWh previously estimated.
  • However, it is important to note that the balance will be on a general downward trend from 10 March.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +7.98TWh on 25 March compared to +7.94TWh in the previous estimate.
  • In comparison to Norway, the Swedish balance will be on a general upward trend from 14 March.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics throughout the majority of the ECMWF forecasts will be mostly below the average of around 2.4mm, with rainfall only anticipated to edge above on 13 March.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up over 11-16 March by as much as 0.2C and are expected to be above 30-year norm for most days throughout the 10-14 day ECMWF forecasts.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.730GW, or 14% on 12 March – down from the 0.995GW forecast for today – which could keep upward pressure on delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability is stable at 81% capacity on Tuesday morning from the previous day, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online
  • The 1.6GW OL3 nuke is still expected to return on 2 May and the 1.08GW Ringhals 3 is running at around 529MW at the time of writing, according to the operators
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The Nordic forward curve could trade in red to resist gains in TTF and German power amid an upward revision of temperatures in the region and stronger hydro balances in Norway and Sweden. Spot prices are likely to be elevated tomorrow as wind is expected to drop slightly on the day.

  • Nordic Base Power APR 25 closed down 3.4% at 28.8 EUR/MWh on 10 March
  • Germany Base Power APR 25 up 0.7% at 77.85 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.2% at 69.16 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas APR 25 up 1.7% at 41.94 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 21-25 March, with the balance anticipated at +9.58TWh on 25 March compared to +9.43TWh previously estimated.
  • However, it is important to note that the balance will be on a general downward trend from 10 March.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +7.98TWh on 25 March compared to +7.94TWh in the previous estimate.
  • In comparison to Norway, the Swedish balance will be on a general upward trend from 14 March.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics throughout the majority of the ECMWF forecasts will be mostly below the average of around 2.4mm, with rainfall only anticipated to edge above on 13 March.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up over 11-16 March by as much as 0.2C and are expected to be above 30-year norm for most days throughout the 10-14 day ECMWF forecasts.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.730GW, or 14% on 12 March – down from the 0.995GW forecast for today – which could keep upward pressure on delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability is stable at 81% capacity on Tuesday morning from the previous day, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online
  • The 1.6GW OL3 nuke is still expected to return on 2 May and the 1.08GW Ringhals 3 is running at around 529MW at the time of writing, according to the operators