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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Could Trade in Red on TTF, Wetter Outlook

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure – with February already trading in red – amid an upward revision of Norway’s hydro balance compared to previous forecasts – lowering supply risks. Temperatures in the Nordics are also expected to be relatively in line with the 30-year norm and losses in German power and TTF could add further downward pressure.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 down 4.2% at 40 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 down 2.2% at 102.3 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 down 1.9% at 110 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.9% at 75.29 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 down 1.3% at 48.98 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.4GW Viking Link between the UK and Denmark (DK1) is still expected to have planned maintenance over 6-9 January, with the unit curtailed to 728MW, latest Remit data show.
  • Works will begin on 6 January at 10:00 CET and will last until 9 January 17:00 CET
  • Additionally, on 9 January the unit will be fully unavailable for 1 hour over 17:00-18:00 CET.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 6-20 Jan from previous forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +11.71TWh on 20 Jan compared to +10.77Wh previously estimated.
  • However, Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +5.64TWh on 20 Jan compared to +5.82TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics over 6-7 Jan will see above-normal precipitation. However, from 8 January, rainfall is expected to flip below the seasonal average of 2.89mm until 16 Jan.
  • And average temperatures in the region will be between minus 4.65C and 1.85C over 6-16 Jan compared to the norm of -1.8C, albeit most days will be in line or above the seasonal average.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.88GW on 7 Jan, or a 36% load factor up from today's 1.18GW forecast, which could weigh on delivery.
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure – with February already trading in red – amid an upward revision of Norway’s hydro balance compared to previous forecasts – lowering supply risks. Temperatures in the Nordics are also expected to be relatively in line with the 30-year norm and losses in German power and TTF could add further downward pressure.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 down 4.2% at 40 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 down 2.2% at 102.3 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 down 1.9% at 110 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.9% at 75.29 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 down 1.3% at 48.98 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.4GW Viking Link between the UK and Denmark (DK1) is still expected to have planned maintenance over 6-9 January, with the unit curtailed to 728MW, latest Remit data show.
  • Works will begin on 6 January at 10:00 CET and will last until 9 January 17:00 CET
  • Additionally, on 9 January the unit will be fully unavailable for 1 hour over 17:00-18:00 CET.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 6-20 Jan from previous forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +11.71TWh on 20 Jan compared to +10.77Wh previously estimated.
  • However, Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +5.64TWh on 20 Jan compared to +5.82TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics over 6-7 Jan will see above-normal precipitation. However, from 8 January, rainfall is expected to flip below the seasonal average of 2.89mm until 16 Jan.
  • And average temperatures in the region will be between minus 4.65C and 1.85C over 6-16 Jan compared to the norm of -1.8C, albeit most days will be in line or above the seasonal average.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.88GW on 7 Jan, or a 36% load factor up from today's 1.18GW forecast, which could weigh on delivery.