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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve May Trade in Green on TTF, German Power

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve could be supported today amid price increases in TTF, supporting neighbouring EU markets. However, stronger hydro balances in Norway and Sweden as well as upward revisions of temperatures in the region could cap gains.

  • Nordic Base Power APR 25 closed up 1.6% at 30.33 EUR/MWh on 28 Feb
  • Germany Base Power APR 25 up 6% at 82.18 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 2.1% at 72.48 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas APR 25 up 6% at 46.995 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.6GW OL3 reactor started its planned maintenance on 1 March, with the unit offline until early May.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up by around 250-600 GWh/d over 5-17 March and is now expected to end at +9.19TWh on 17 March compared to +8.60TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected to be higher, with the balance at +5.24TWh on 17 March from +5.20TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics have mostly revised up over 3-8 March but as much as 0.4C and are seen reaching as high as 5C on 6 March compared to the seasonal norm of -0.7C.
  • However, temps will be on a general downward trend over 7-17 March and are seen flipping below the 30-year norm on 12 March.
  • Rainfall in the region has been revised down over 3-5 March and is seen mostly below the seasonal norm until at least 17 March – which could limit flows into reservoirs.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 3.36GW, or 64% on 4 March – down from forecasts for today of around 4.04GW – which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 78% capacity on Monday morning, down from 100% on Friday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic forward curve could be supported today amid price increases in TTF, supporting neighbouring EU markets. However, stronger hydro balances in Norway and Sweden as well as upward revisions of temperatures in the region could cap gains.

  • Nordic Base Power APR 25 closed up 1.6% at 30.33 EUR/MWh on 28 Feb
  • Germany Base Power APR 25 up 6% at 82.18 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 2.1% at 72.48 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas APR 25 up 6% at 46.995 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.6GW OL3 reactor started its planned maintenance on 1 March, with the unit offline until early May.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up by around 250-600 GWh/d over 5-17 March and is now expected to end at +9.19TWh on 17 March compared to +8.60TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected to be higher, with the balance at +5.24TWh on 17 March from +5.20TWh in the previous forecasts.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics have mostly revised up over 3-8 March but as much as 0.4C and are seen reaching as high as 5C on 6 March compared to the seasonal norm of -0.7C.
  • However, temps will be on a general downward trend over 7-17 March and are seen flipping below the 30-year norm on 12 March.
  • Rainfall in the region has been revised down over 3-5 March and is seen mostly below the seasonal norm until at least 17 March – which could limit flows into reservoirs.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 3.36GW, or 64% on 4 March – down from forecasts for today of around 4.04GW – which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 78% capacity on Monday morning, down from 100% on Friday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.