Nordic Front-Month Moves Down for Second Session

The Nordic front-month baseload power contract has continued downward for the second consecutive session as strong precipitation forecasts – reducing the risk of lack of hydropower supply – continue to place downward pressure, with losses in the German equivalent adding additional downward pressure.

• Nordic Base Power JUL 24 down 2% at 25 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power JUL 24 down 1.1% at 73 EUR/MWh
• Rainfall in the Nordics over the 29-30 June was revised down slightly by a total of 1.75mm, with precipitation throughout the two-week forecast between around 2.2-7.5mm compared to the 30-year norm of about 3mm. Rainfall is expected to only be below the historical average over 2-5 July, according to ECMWF forecast.
• But Finland’s 110MW curtailment at the 890MW OL1 nuclear unit has been extended by one day to 29 June, latest Remit data show. The unit was originally expected to be fully available on 28 June.
• The 115-195MW curtailment at the 1.6GW OL3 nuclear plant is still expected to end on 6 July.
• Average temperatures in the Nordics have been slightly revised up over 28-30 June to be between 17-21C compared to the seasonal norm of about 16C. Temperatures are then expected to begin tapering off, edging below the historical average over 3-6 July.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecast at 0.681-2.04GW, or 13-39% load factors over 29-30 June, -up by around 225MW on the day – with wind then expected at 0.720-1.01GW over 1-3 July, or 14-19% load factors, SpotRenewables – possibly weighing down power prices over the periods.