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POWER: Nordic March Falls to Lowest Since End of Jan

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve is trading in red to track losses in TTF and declining prices in German power. The upward revision of temperatures in the region is also adding further downward pressure. However, weakened hydro balances in Norway and Sweden could limit losses. March is currently at its lowest since 30 January.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 9.6% at 41 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 4.3% at 85.75 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 3.9% at 102.65 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.7% at 78.89 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 5.5% at 52.605 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected lower throughout the 14-day forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +3.05TWh on 26 February compared to +3.16TWh previously estimated. This is more than half the balance on 12 February at +6.71TWh.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.21TWh on 26 February compared to +4.35TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been revised up over 13-18 February by as much as 0.6C and are now expected to flip above the seasonal average of around -2C on 21 February and remain above until at least 27 February.
  • And precipitation in the region will begin to pick towards the end of the month, with rainfall higher over 20-27 February compared to 13-19 February – which could increase flows into reservoirs.
  • But Nordic hydropower reserves hit their lowest so far this year in week 6 to be at 64.4% capacity, 81.72TWh as rainfall in the region halved on the week and demand remained firm. However, strong nuclear output slowed the rate of decline.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 0.743GW, or a 14% load factor on 14 February – down from the 0.889GW forecast for today – which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 100% capacity on Thursday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic forward curve is trading in red to track losses in TTF and declining prices in German power. The upward revision of temperatures in the region is also adding further downward pressure. However, weakened hydro balances in Norway and Sweden could limit losses. March is currently at its lowest since 30 January.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 9.6% at 41 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 4.3% at 85.75 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 3.9% at 102.65 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.7% at 78.89 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 5.5% at 52.605 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected lower throughout the 14-day forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +3.05TWh on 26 February compared to +3.16TWh previously estimated. This is more than half the balance on 12 February at +6.71TWh.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.21TWh on 26 February compared to +4.35TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been revised up over 13-18 February by as much as 0.6C and are now expected to flip above the seasonal average of around -2C on 21 February and remain above until at least 27 February.
  • And precipitation in the region will begin to pick towards the end of the month, with rainfall higher over 20-27 February compared to 13-19 February – which could increase flows into reservoirs.
  • But Nordic hydropower reserves hit their lowest so far this year in week 6 to be at 64.4% capacity, 81.72TWh as rainfall in the region halved on the week and demand remained firm. However, strong nuclear output slowed the rate of decline.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 0.743GW, or a 14% load factor on 14 February – down from the 0.889GW forecast for today – which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 100% capacity on Thursday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are still online.