February 07, 2025 08:32 GMT
POWER: Nordic MarchLikely to Drop On The Day But Could Settle Higher on Week
POWER
The Nordic March is anticipated to trade lower – once liquid – as a stronger outlook in Norway’s and Sweden’s hydro balance could dent the product – suggesting reduced supply risks. Temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up, with the 1.17GW Forsmark still on track to return on 7 Feb – albeit 9hrs later than previously scheduled. The contract settled around 16.7% up on the week on 6 February.
- Nordic Base Power MAR 25 closed down 2.6% at 43.25 EUR/MWh on 6 Feb
- France Base Power MAR 25 down 2% at 91.27 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.7% at 106.37 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.1% at 82.02 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.2% at 54.4 EUR/MWh
- The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be higher on the day, with some revisions up by around 600GWh. The balance is anticipated at +3.96TWh on 21 February compared to +3.35TWh previously estimated. Despite this, it is important to note that the balance is forecast at around +8.27TWh on 7 Feb.
- Sweden’s hydro balance has also been revised lower at +5.52TWh on 21 February compared to +5.24TWh in the previous estimate. This is also down from +7.34TWh estimated for 7 Feb.
- The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 nuclear power plant is still scheduled to return on 7 February but will be back at 21:00 CET compared 12:00 CET for the same day previously anticipated. Full power will still be reached in the evening of 10 February.
- Average temperatures in the region have been revised up over 8-12 February by up to around 0.4C – however, temps are still anticipated to dip below the 30-year norm over 11-20 February.
- And rainfall in the Nordics will remain below the seasonal average throughout the 6-10 ECMWF forecasts – likely limiting flows into reservoirs.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecast at 2.01GW, or a 38% load factor on 8 February – up from today's 1.40GW forecast, which could weigh on delivery costs coupled with lower demand.
- Nordic nuclear availability was at 98% capacity on Friday morning, stable on the day, according to Bloomberg.
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