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Nordic Sept Could Recover After Monday’s Plunge

POWER

The Nordic outright September power base-load contract closed at a new contract low on Monday amid declines in the European energy complex and a wetter weather outlook. Nordic front-curve power prices are likely to recover today amid gains in Germany and natural gas markets, despite Norway’s hydrological balance being further revised higher.

  • Nordic Base Power SEP 24 closed yesterday down 12.6% at 25.6 EUR/MWh.
    • Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 2.3% at 86.07 EUR/MWh
    • TTF Gas SEP 24 up 2.3% at 36.3 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month rebounds from the lows of €34.745/MWh yesterday supported by a recovery in wider market risk sentiment and with escalating Middle East risks. Supply could be at risk amid growing concerns that Iran is expected to retaliate for Israel’s killing of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran.
  • The hydrological balance across Norway has been revised up and is now forecast to be around 1.2TWh as of 20 August according to Bloomberg.
  • Forecasts suggested precipitation in the Nordics has been slightly revised down with precipitation above normal from 8-11 August before falling back down.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was stable on the day at 92% of capacity as of Tuesday morning according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand in Norway is forecast at a peak of 13.32GW on Tuesday and of 13.34GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
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