Nordic Sept on Track to Rise for Third Session

The Nordic September could increase for the third consecutive session as forecasts point to a drier outlook than expected over the past two days while neighbouring EU power markets are being supported by slight price increases in TTF and emissions – which could raise domestic costs.

• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 0.6% at 92.37 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 73.35 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 up 0.6% at 38.175 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance has turned positive towards the end of August, however, slightly less than previously forecast, with the balance now expected to reach +949GWh on 2 September compared to +1,384GWh forecast on Tuesday and +1,801GWh expected for the same day on Monday morning.
• Precipitation in Norway is expected to fall to the lower end of the ECMWF forecasts over the 28-30 August at 0.5-2mm – likely pressuring hydro stocks.
• And with nuclear availability in the region still anticipated to drop- delivery costs could be supported amid lower baseload generation.
• Max temperatures are expected between 19.8-23.9C over 22-29 August – keeping cooling demand limited – but will rise to around 25C – which could increase cooling demand.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 31% load factor, or 1.64GW on 22 August – which could weigh down power prices on delivery. Wind will then drop to an 18% load factor the next day, which could support prices from the previous day.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 81% of capacity on Wednesday, down from 83% on the previous day.