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Norges Bank Likely To Revise Q1 Mainland GDP Projection Higher

NORWAY

The Norwegian monthly mainland GDP indicator was stronger than expected in January, at 0.4% M/M (vs 0.0% cons). The Norges Bank's December MPR expected a weaker -0.2% M/M, but this forecast is stale and will be updated at Thursday's March meeting.

  • The Norges Bank's -0.3% Q/Q mainland GDP expectation for Q1 2024 is expected to be revised higher somewhat, and the January data strengthens this case.
  • However, December's -0.1% M/M was revised to -0.3% M/M, tempering the January beat somewhat.
  • The monthly indicator is volatile though, and Statistics Norway notes rolling three-month growth for GDP Mainland Norway was 0.2 percent (vs 0.3%prior).
  • Wholesale and retail trade contributed the most to the January print, though household consumption fell 0.4% due to a drop in household car purchases.

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