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North American Data Leaves 55bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced, June & Aug MPC Pricing Sticky

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The North American data also influences the GBP short end, with SONIA futures now +0.25 to -4.5.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 55bp of ’24 cuts after pricing over 60bp of easing earlier today.
  • Pricing further forwards on the strip is a little stickier in the wake of yesterday's dovish BoE decision.
  • June MPC pricing continues to hover around 50/50 odds of a 25bp cut, with the first 25bp step essentially fully priced come the end of the Aug meeting.
  • The monthly UK labour market report and a raft of BoE speak is due next week.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.077-12.3
Aug-244.954-24.6
Sep-244.861-33.9
Nov-244.738-46.2
Dec-244.647-55.4
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The North American data also influences the GBP short end, with SONIA futures now +0.25 to -4.5.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 55bp of ’24 cuts after pricing over 60bp of easing earlier today.
  • Pricing further forwards on the strip is a little stickier in the wake of yesterday's dovish BoE decision.
  • June MPC pricing continues to hover around 50/50 odds of a 25bp cut, with the first 25bp step essentially fully priced come the end of the Aug meeting.
  • The monthly UK labour market report and a raft of BoE speak is due next week.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.077-12.3
Aug-244.954-24.6
Sep-244.861-33.9
Nov-244.738-46.2
Dec-244.647-55.4