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NORWAY: Manufacturing IP Drops On 3m/3m Basis, But Weakness May Be Overstated

NORWAY

The fall in 3m/3m Norwegian manufacturing industrial production to -0.9% (vs 1.4% prior) may overstate the underlying weakness in Norwegian industry. The 3m/3m comparison was skewed lower by the 5.4% M/M March reading dropping into the denominator of the calculation, which took some of the shine off of the 1.4% M/M and 2.1% Y/Y prints.

  • Statistics Norway’s industrial confidence reading also rose to 3.9 in Q2 (vs 0.6 in Q1), which is likely a more reliable signal of industrial confidence than the volatile manufacturing PMI (which dropped to 47.7 in June vs 51.7 in May).
  • The headline IP reading rose 14.9% M/M in June, driven by a 20.0% rise in the extraction and related services component (which is excluded from the “manufacturing” measure noted above). 
  • As such, it appears that gas pipeline outages in June did not have a material impact on the latest IP readings. 
Source: Statistics Norway, BBG, MNI

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