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Norwegian House Prices Continue To Exhibit Strength

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Norwegian existing house prices continued their strong development in 2024, rising 0.6% M/M on a seasonally adjusted basis (vs 0.7% prior). The Norges Bank’s March MPR forecast has undershot actual price growth in every month since its release.

  • The resilience of house prices has been impressive considering the Norges Bank’s hawkish stance and given that ~90% of Norwegian mortgages have variable interest rates.
  • Recent developments warrant an upward revision to house price forecasts in the June MPR, which will likely exert a small upward effect on the rate path all else equal.
  • Elsewhere, Swedish house prices also registered growth in May, with apartments rising 1.6% M/M and 2.2% y/y, and houses rising 1.2% M/M and 1.2% Y/Y. However, we note that this data is not seasonally adjusted.

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Norwegian existing house prices continued their strong development in 2024, rising 0.6% M/M on a seasonally adjusted basis (vs 0.7% prior). The Norges Bank’s March MPR forecast has undershot actual price growth in every month since its release.

  • The resilience of house prices has been impressive considering the Norges Bank’s hawkish stance and given that ~90% of Norwegian mortgages have variable interest rates.
  • Recent developments warrant an upward revision to house price forecasts in the June MPR, which will likely exert a small upward effect on the rate path all else equal.
  • Elsewhere, Swedish house prices also registered growth in May, with apartments rising 1.6% M/M and 2.2% y/y, and houses rising 1.2% M/M and 1.2% Y/Y. However, we note that this data is not seasonally adjusted.