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Notable Cooling Of Core Inflation Seen As Highlight Of Flash CPI Data

POLAND

Poland's core CPI inflation may have slowed below +12.0% Y/Y in May, according to estimates provided by several Polish analysts after the release of preliminary headline figures. The central bank will publish official data on core inflation on June 16.

  • The Polish Economic Institute estimate that core CPI inflation may have slowed from +12.2% Y/Y to +11.3-11.4%. They point out that headline inflation has mostly been weighed on by energy and food prices. However, they warn that the impact of cheaper fuels on inflation will start to disappear from September and overall disinflation will be slower from there, while core inflation may stay higher for longer.
  • Pekao point to a "surprising and solid" decline in core CPI inflation to around +11.5%-11.6% Y/Y from +12.2%.
  • PKO "estimate that this time the decline in inflation affected all of its main components, including the core ones."
  • mBank say that the main takeaway from today's inflation data is the core CPI inflation seems to have eased to +11.5-11.6% Y/Y from +12.2%.
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