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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- There is now a 17bp hike for the May FOMC from the current effective 4.83% (vs 12bp 30mins before release), there is now only half a cut priced for Sept (-12.5bps vs -27bps) and marginally less than two cuts for Dec (-47bps vs -64bps).
- This is a sizeable lifting for a broadly inline payrolls figures which had a combination of some hotter and some softer aspects to the wider report, although importantly for markets it ruled out a potential for showing a sharp correction in labour demand.
- The scale of the move was likely a function of notable weakness from JOLTS/ADP/ISM/initial claims already being priced (the 4.36% for year-end is back at pre-JOLTS levels) but is potentially exacerbated by thin markets on Good Friday.
- CPI follows soon on Wed as the next key test.
FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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