Nov GDP Plunges, Raising Prospect of Q4.....>

UK DATA: Nov GDP Plunges, Raising Prospect of Q4 Stagnation

-UK Nov GDP -0.3% m/m vs upwardly-revised +0.l% in October

-UK Nov GDP +0.1% 3m/3m vs +0.2% in Oct

-UK Nov GDP +0.6% y/y vs +1.0%r Oct, lowest since June 2012

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UK GDP fell sharply in November, falling well short of expectations, 

suggesting that Q4 growth will fail to meet the Bank of England forecast 

in Q4. Output must rise by more than 0.1% in December to leave GDP 

unchanged between Q3 and Q4. The dominant service sector contracted 

by 0.3% between November and December, shaving 0.25pp from total growth. 

Manufacturing slumped by 1.7%, leaving the construction sector to do all 

the heavy lifting in December. A 1.9% rebound in construction added 

0.11pp to total growth. December retail sales data due on Friday should 

provide a sense of consumer sentiment toward year end, and another weak 

showing could force a downgrade of forecasts to Q4 growth.