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HEALTHCARE: Novartis (NOVNVX: Aa3/AA-/AA-u): Earnings Preview

HEALTHCARE
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  • Novartis upgraded guidance on 21st Nov with CAGR +5% 2024-29 and Core Op Margin expected to grow to 40% by 2027
  • FY Sales $50bn expected +10% yoy; 4Q24 $12.9bn +12.9% yoy
  • Entresto is 15.7% of sales and loses exclusivity this summer.
  • The company recently were award a Patent recognition for combination therapy for Entresto - a standard way to extend life.
  • Growth drugs: Kisqali, Kesimpta, Cosentyx.
  • Is now a pure-play Pharma company post Alcon and Sandoz spin-offs
  • Free Cash Flow generation of 34% of sales for 9M24 would imply full-year $17bn
  • At JPM Conference, the company said that they would have "shareholder-friendly capital allocation". $5.4bn of share buybacks have still to be executed.
  • A busy year for M&A in 2024 saw $5+bn of acquisitions.
  • Raised USD 3.7bn and CHF 2.2bn in bonds.
  • $2.75bn + CHF500m matures in 2025
  • Moody's completed a periodic review today with no change
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  • Novartis upgraded guidance on 21st Nov with CAGR +5% 2024-29 and Core Op Margin expected to grow to 40% by 2027
  • FY Sales $50bn expected +10% yoy; 4Q24 $12.9bn +12.9% yoy
  • Entresto is 15.7% of sales and loses exclusivity this summer.
  • The company recently were award a Patent recognition for combination therapy for Entresto - a standard way to extend life.
  • Growth drugs: Kisqali, Kesimpta, Cosentyx.
  • Is now a pure-play Pharma company post Alcon and Sandoz spin-offs
  • Free Cash Flow generation of 34% of sales for 9M24 would imply full-year $17bn
  • At JPM Conference, the company said that they would have "shareholder-friendly capital allocation". $5.4bn of share buybacks have still to be executed.
  • A busy year for M&A in 2024 saw $5+bn of acquisitions.
  • Raised USD 3.7bn and CHF 2.2bn in bonds.
  • $2.75bn + CHF500m matures in 2025
  • Moody's completed a periodic review today with no change