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November Budget Balance, MNI Chicago PMI

MEXICO
  • Mexico’s Treasury will publish budget balance for November, while Banxico releases net outstanding loan data. The only notable data point for global markets is the MNI Chicago PMI. Next week, the December Manufacturing PMI is due Tuesday and Banxico minutes will be published on Jan 04. December inflation data is scheduled to be released on Jan 09.
  • The trend outlook in USDMXN is unchanged and remains bearish. The pair has breached support at 17.0340, the Nov 27 low, reinforcing bearish conditions. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 16.6262, the Jul 28 low. Initial firm resistance is not until 17.5653, the Dec 5 high.
  • CIBC noted earlier in the week that the break below 16.90 signals a retest of 16.75 area in the short term, however, they maintain their view the market pricing of the Fed’s easing cycle next year has overshot. Moreover, CIBC are yet to see the full set of opinions with regards to when in Q1 Banxico will start its easing cycle. In the minutes next week, CIBC would not be surprised to see some board members keeping the door open for a rate cut in February.
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