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November Inflation Data Scheduled Ahead of Banxico Next Week

MEXICO
  • November headline and core CPI data in Mexico are expected to rise slightly from the mid-November prints. If close to these expectations, the data should not raise too many concerns given the close proximity to latest central bank year-end forecasts of 4.4% and 5.3% respectively. There is an overwhelming consensus that Banxico will hold rates steady next week, however, the data will be important in prompting potential easing discussions in Q1 next year.
  • Additionally, Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath said in an interview with Reforma on Wednesday that Mexico's first-quarter inflation data, particularly January's inflation data, will be key for Banxico’s upcoming decisions. "In January 2023 we were surprised to see inflation on the rise, especially on the services side," Heath said. "We don't want to find ourselves with a similar surprise this time around. So, the first quarter, particularly January, will be key."
  • Data is scheduled at 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • November CPI M/m, est. 0.69%, prior 0.38%
    • November CPI Y/y, est. 4.39%, prior 4.26%
    • November CPI Core M/m, est. 0.29%, prior 0.39%
    • November CPI Core Y/y, est. 5.33%, prior 5.50%
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