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November IP Weak In Contrast To Spain, Outlook Remains Poor


In contrast to the Spanish reading out earlier Thursday, Italian November industrial production was weaker than consensus on a monthly basis. Seasonally and working day adjusted IP was -1.5% M/M (vs -0.2% cons; -0.2% prior), while the 3m/3m growth rate was -0.8% (vs -0.3% prior).

  • The SWDA index is now almost -7.5% lower than the post-Covid peak in April 2022, just slightly less of a decline than Germany's where production is almost -8% below December 2020 levels. The annual rate (in WDA terms) was negative for the 10th consecutive month, at -3.1% Y/Y (vs -1.1% prior).
  • The outlook for IP in December, as implied by the latest survey data, suggests continued weakness. The EC Industry survey measure fell to -9.2 points (vs -8.5 prior), the 17th consecutive negative month, with expected production component turning negative.
  • Meanwhile, the December manufacturing PMI remained sluggish at 45.3, with respondents citing "domestic and foreign demand weakness" as drivers for output and new order contractions.
  • The sub-components of the IP index were all negative on a SWDA monthly basis, with consumer and intermediate goods falling -1.8% M/M each (these components make up 59.1% of the overall index). On a WDA annual basis, these components both fell -5.7% Y/Y.
  • Capital goods production was down -0.2% M/M SWDA though up +0.6% Y/Y WDA, while energy was -4.0% M/M SWDA and +1.0% Y/Y WDA).

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