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NSA Initial Claims Data Painting Slightly Softer Picture

US DATA
  • Initial claims increased slightly last week to a seasonally adjusted 198k (cons 195k) from 191k, in itself not moving the needle with a four-week average equally low.
  • The raw non-seasonally adjusted data have however started to drift higher in the past couple weeks compared to weeks of more typical non-pandemic years, whilst the SA data are potentially pushed lower with increased crossover of weeks with very high pandemic readings plus any potential weather distortions.
  • It’s not a wide divergence yet but one that bears keeping an eye on against a backdrop of strong increases in Challenger layoffs.

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