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NW Europe Diesel Stocks To Fall in Coming Months: WoodMac

DIESEL

Stocks of diesel-type fuel in northwest Europe are set to fall in coming months in line with the seasonal normal trend according to Wood Mackenzie. Inventories are up year-on-year but currently lower than historical normal.

  • “The outlook for Europe diesel/gasoil supply is tight in our current forecast, driven by the lower diesel/gasoil yields expected from lighter crude slates, the shift to jet yields, and unplanned refinery outages,” said Emma Howsham at Wood Mackenzie. “Demand is expected to increase month-on-month to November.”
  • OECD Europe’s yields of diesel-type fuel in July was more than 1.6% lower than the historic average due to a switch to less dense crude after Saudi cuts, she added.
  • Diesel margins have rallied since early July with the European Gasoil-Brent spread up from around 17.5$/bbl to over 36$/bbl
  • Unexpected supply disruptions, cold weather driven demand or surprisingly strong economies are all upside risks amid the low global inventories. The main diesel supply concerns are in Europe and the US Atlantic Coast according to FGE.
  • “There is a worry that stocks will not build sufficiently before October, and we will then start seeing draws from what threatens to be a low base.” said Eugene Lindell at FGE.
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down 0$/bbl at 36.45$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 51.58$/bbl


Source: Wood Mackenzie / Bloomberg

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