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NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations Fall To Lowest In 11 Years Of Data

US DATA
  • NY Fed inflation expectations held steady at 3.0% for 1Y and 2.5% for 5Y horizons in January.
  • The 3Y was more eye-catching however, falling from 2.62% to 2.35% for its lowest on an unrounded basis since the series started in 2013, and with a 65bp decline over two months since the 3% in November.
  • The decline builds on the differential seen with the U.Mich consumer survey last month, with the U.Mich 5-10Y component for the most part holding in its steady 2.9-3.1% range.
  • For historical context, whilst the NY Fed 3Y and U.Mich 5-10Y measure mostly tracked each other through 2023, the NY Fed series increased significantly higher through 2021 and only started to decline at the end of 2021.

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