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US DATA: NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations Shift Higher In Mixed Report

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • NY Fed consumer inflation expectations saw a mixed month for December, with the 1Y holding steady at 3.0%, the 3Y jumping 40bps to 3.0% and the 5Y falling 20bps to 2.7%.
  • The 3Y measure is its highest since Nov 2023 and came amidst its highest uncertainty since May.  Largest increases in inflation uncertainty were those with lowest educational attainment and lowest pay.
  • The 5Y measure meanwhile fell to its lowest since March but is still a relatively new series having only started in 2022.
  • Interestingly, the unchanged 1Y figure came despite gas inflation expectations falling to their lowest since Sep’22 (down 70bps to 2.0%).
  • The medium term components likely received particular focus this month after Friday’s surprise jump in the preliminary U.Mich survey, with its 5-10Y measure rising 30bps to 3.3% for its highest since 2008 (but only a preliminary release that could still be revised). To this end, the rise in the 3Y series is of some note but it can be a volatile series and it keeps to recent ranges for now.
  • Back to the NY Fed’s survey (in full here), the labor market details point to less churn, with the mean probability of losing a job, voluntarily leaving a job and finding a job dropping to their lowest since Jan’24, Jan’24 and Apr’21. 
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  • NY Fed consumer inflation expectations saw a mixed month for December, with the 1Y holding steady at 3.0%, the 3Y jumping 40bps to 3.0% and the 5Y falling 20bps to 2.7%.
  • The 3Y measure is its highest since Nov 2023 and came amidst its highest uncertainty since May.  Largest increases in inflation uncertainty were those with lowest educational attainment and lowest pay.
  • The 5Y measure meanwhile fell to its lowest since March but is still a relatively new series having only started in 2022.
  • Interestingly, the unchanged 1Y figure came despite gas inflation expectations falling to their lowest since Sep’22 (down 70bps to 2.0%).
  • The medium term components likely received particular focus this month after Friday’s surprise jump in the preliminary U.Mich survey, with its 5-10Y measure rising 30bps to 3.3% for its highest since 2008 (but only a preliminary release that could still be revised). To this end, the rise in the 3Y series is of some note but it can be a volatile series and it keeps to recent ranges for now.
  • Back to the NY Fed’s survey (in full here), the labor market details point to less churn, with the mean probability of losing a job, voluntarily leaving a job and finding a job dropping to their lowest since Jan’24, Jan’24 and Apr’21. 
image