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NY Fed CPI Scenarios With Supply Chain Pressures

FED
  • The NY Fed’s supply chain pressure index (GSCPI) last year saw a sizeable improvement from the Dec’21 peak of 4 standard deviations to just 1 but it has plateaued around there since September.
  • Released earlier today, research from Liberty Street Economics/NY Fed (here) showed that in their baseline of the GSCPI returning to 0, CPI inflation is seen falling to 3.8% Y/Y twelve months on from the 6.2% in Jan’23 on 12-month log percent change basis.
  • However, in a shock scenario with the GSCPI remaining at 1 and oil prices increasing 30%, CPI inflation would only slow from 6.2 to 5.9%.

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