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NY Fed Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) Gradual Decline

US

According to the NY Fed, the latest UIG "full data set" measure for December is currently estimated at 5.4% -0.3% from November.

  • The "prices-only" measure for December is currently estimated at 4.5%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
  • The twelve-month change in the December CPI was +6.5%, a 0.6 percentage point decrease from the previous month.
  • For December 2022, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 4.5% to 5.4% range, a slightly wider range than November, because of a larger decrease in its lower bound than in its upper bound.

NY Federal Reserve/MNI

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