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NZD/NOK Divergence Puts Cross Within Range of YTD Highs

FOREX
  • Equity market sentiment is a touch softer headed into the NY crossover, putting the three major US equity indices into negative territory a few hours out from the opening bell. Resultingly, haven currencies are very modestly bid - aiding CHF higher. The USD is rangebound, however, keeping the USD Index within range of the 100-dma - a level that's proved definitive for prices across February so far.
  • NOK is the session's poorest performer so far, with softer equity market sentiment and a pullback in the oil price working against commodity- and high beta currencies. EUR/NOK is trading just above the 50-dma at typing - a level that markets have struggled to maintain momentum above - with the level pierced, but not meaningfully broken since October last year.
  • NZD is bucking the trend, however, likely thanks to strong demand at the latest long end NZGB syndication (which is usually dominated by offshore investors). NZD saw support, tipping AUD/NZD toward the YTD lows of 1.0586.
  • EUR/AUD saw a brief spell of downside on headlines confirming that France's Saint-Gobain were to place a cash offer for Australia's CSR, valuing the company at A$4.3bln - but the impact has faded slightly headed into the NY crossover.
  • Focus for the Wednesday session rests on the Fed minutes release, with markets on watch for any further details on the FOMC's deliberations over the easing cycle and any fresh approach to quantitative tightening.
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