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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Lower On US CPI, Tests 50-day EMA

NZD
  • The NZD/USD fell by 0.21% on Wednesday to 0.6137, the pair traded in tight ranges heading into the US session before higher-than-expected US CPI saw the USD rally.
  • U.S. core CPI surprised higher in August on a housing inflation rebound, rising 0.281% last month against expectations for a 0.2% increase. Headline CPI added 0.187%, in line with expectations. That brings the 12-month rate for headline and core CPI inflation to 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
  • The 50-day EMA acted as support overnight, with the pair tapping it before seeing a bit of a recovering. The 14-day RSI is now slightly below 50, while the MACD indictor is printing increasing red bars, indicting bearish momentum.
  • Initial support is 0.6113 (50-day EMA) and below here the 0.6090 (100 & 200-day EMA). To halt the downward trend, the pair needs to recover above the 20-day EMA at 0.6155 while further upside resistance is 0.6186 (Sep 9 highs) and while 0.6200 (Round number) becomes the next major resistance.
  • New Zealand saw a record net migration loss of 55,800 citizens in the year to July 2024, while overall net migration gained 67,200 people due to strong non-citizen arrivals, despite a cooling economy and rising migrant departures. Annual net migration is forecast to slow to zero by 2025, reflecting fewer job opportunities.
  • RBNZ dated OIS has firmed 2bps for the October meeting, with 36.5bps of cuts now priced. Looking out further into next year pricing has firmed 2-8bps through to July
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap spread fell 12bps on Wednesday to close at 16bps
  • Expiries: 0.6355 ($200m) Sept 12, 0.6003 ($396.54m) Sep 17
  • Today, Food Prices & Card Spending at 0845 AEST / 0645 HKT
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