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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Slightly Lower, House Prices Continue Fall

NZD
USGlobalAPACNew ZealandBulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • NZD/USD fell 0.23% to 0.6096 on Monday, with no major headlines out and a light trading session in the US for Columbus day. The pair opened the session lower following disappointing China headlines and then saw some further weakness heading into the US session, hitting an intraday low of 0.6070, before a rebound as equities pushed higher.
  • Looking at technicals, the pair remains below all key moving averages although it does look like it could be forming a base with the 14-day RSI off lows at 40, while MACD is showing decreasing red bars, to the upside 0.6113 (200-day EMA) is initial resistance, with the next target 0.6145 (Oct 8 high) while to the downside initial support is 0.6053 (Oct 9 lows) with 0.5988 (76.4% retracement of the July 29 to Sep 30 move & Aug 14) the next key support.
  • In September, New Zealand’s REINZ House Sales dropped 1.1% y/y (-0.7% prior) although is showing early signs of activity as mortgage rates dropped, but a significant price lift is not expected until 2025. House sales were down 4% seasonally adjusted, though likely flat after revisions, with sales still below pre-COVID levels. The house price index rose 0.2%, driven by Auckland, while prices outside the city fell 0.3%. Mortgage rates have dropped nearly 100bps since July, reviving buyer interest, but there remains a glut of unsold homes with listings are at a nine-year high, though stabilizing, as per WBC.
  • NZ FinMin Willis, speaking at the INFINZ conference, said inflation is moving back toward the RBNZ's 1-3% target range. She welcomed last week's 50bp rate cut, highlighting its positive impact on households and businesses, as half of mortgage lending will quickly feel the effects. Willis emphasized the need to boost New Zealand's economic growth by attracting investment, improving human capital, and fostering innovation. She acknowledged that the country has underutilized its advantages and outlined a government reform agenda focused on unlocking New Zealand’s potential in business, trade, and infrastructure.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is holding steady with 53.8bps of cuts priced for November. Pricing has continued to cool out through to October with 142.8bps of a cuts.
  • The calendar is light on for the remainder of the session, focus will turn to CPI on Wednesday
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  • NZD/USD fell 0.23% to 0.6096 on Monday, with no major headlines out and a light trading session in the US for Columbus day. The pair opened the session lower following disappointing China headlines and then saw some further weakness heading into the US session, hitting an intraday low of 0.6070, before a rebound as equities pushed higher.
  • Looking at technicals, the pair remains below all key moving averages although it does look like it could be forming a base with the 14-day RSI off lows at 40, while MACD is showing decreasing red bars, to the upside 0.6113 (200-day EMA) is initial resistance, with the next target 0.6145 (Oct 8 high) while to the downside initial support is 0.6053 (Oct 9 lows) with 0.5988 (76.4% retracement of the July 29 to Sep 30 move & Aug 14) the next key support.
  • In September, New Zealand’s REINZ House Sales dropped 1.1% y/y (-0.7% prior) although is showing early signs of activity as mortgage rates dropped, but a significant price lift is not expected until 2025. House sales were down 4% seasonally adjusted, though likely flat after revisions, with sales still below pre-COVID levels. The house price index rose 0.2%, driven by Auckland, while prices outside the city fell 0.3%. Mortgage rates have dropped nearly 100bps since July, reviving buyer interest, but there remains a glut of unsold homes with listings are at a nine-year high, though stabilizing, as per WBC.
  • NZ FinMin Willis, speaking at the INFINZ conference, said inflation is moving back toward the RBNZ's 1-3% target range. She welcomed last week's 50bp rate cut, highlighting its positive impact on households and businesses, as half of mortgage lending will quickly feel the effects. Willis emphasized the need to boost New Zealand's economic growth by attracting investment, improving human capital, and fostering innovation. She acknowledged that the country has underutilized its advantages and outlined a government reform agenda focused on unlocking New Zealand’s potential in business, trade, and infrastructure.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is holding steady with 53.8bps of cuts priced for November. Pricing has continued to cool out through to October with 142.8bps of a cuts.
  • The calendar is light on for the remainder of the session, focus will turn to CPI on Wednesday