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NZD: NZD/USD Edges Slightly Lower, Testing 20-day EMA

NZD
USGlobalEM BulletAPACNew ZealandBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The NZD/USD fell 0.40% on Friday to 0.6157 in what was a very slow session. The focus was on USDJPY which has continued to drift lower, tracking US yields.
  • The NZD speculative net positions dropped sharply to -3.3K on 13 September 2024, down from -0.2K, indicating a significant increase in short positions against the currency. This shift reflects growing trader pessimism, potentially influenced by economic data, interest rate changes, or geopolitical factors.
  • The pair is trading right on initial support and the 20-day EMA at 0.6159 at the moment, next support is Thursday's lows of 0.6130 while further below we have the 100 & 20-day EMAs at 0.6090 area. Initial resistance is the Friday highs of 0.6195 with a break of the psychological 0.6200 opening a move to retests the cycle highs of 0.6300.
  • RBNZ dated OIS was little changed on Friday, with 83bps of cuts priced in through until year-end. Pricing through to July 2025 has firmed slightly with 196bps of cuts priced in, up 6bps.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap spread was little changed on Thursday at 18bps
  • Expiries: 0.5900 ($200m) & 0.6003 ($396.54m) Sep 17
  • Today, Performance Services Index at 0830 AEST / 0630 HKT
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  • The NZD/USD fell 0.40% on Friday to 0.6157 in what was a very slow session. The focus was on USDJPY which has continued to drift lower, tracking US yields.
  • The NZD speculative net positions dropped sharply to -3.3K on 13 September 2024, down from -0.2K, indicating a significant increase in short positions against the currency. This shift reflects growing trader pessimism, potentially influenced by economic data, interest rate changes, or geopolitical factors.
  • The pair is trading right on initial support and the 20-day EMA at 0.6159 at the moment, next support is Thursday's lows of 0.6130 while further below we have the 100 & 20-day EMAs at 0.6090 area. Initial resistance is the Friday highs of 0.6195 with a break of the psychological 0.6200 opening a move to retests the cycle highs of 0.6300.
  • RBNZ dated OIS was little changed on Friday, with 83bps of cuts priced in through until year-end. Pricing through to July 2025 has firmed slightly with 196bps of cuts priced in, up 6bps.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap spread was little changed on Thursday at 18bps
  • Expiries: 0.5900 ($200m) & 0.6003 ($396.54m) Sep 17
  • Today, Performance Services Index at 0830 AEST / 0630 HKT