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NZD/USD Fails Above 0.6100, Building Approvals Fall

NZD

NZD continued it move lower post the RBNZ decision, there was a brief rally during the US session however this was driven by a move lower from the USD post US data, and was quickly reversed. The Kiwi is 0.20% lower vs the USD for the day, and now of 1.76% lower over the past week to be the worse of the G10 currencies the BBDXY is trading 0.02% higher.

  • NZD/USD drifted lower after the Asian session Thursday, reaching a low of 0.6077 just prior to US data being released, weakness from the USD post data saw the pair break above 0.6100, touching highs of 0.6113, however the move was quickly reversed and we trade near daily lows at 0.6087. After the recent 1.70% sell off a pull-back wouldn't be unexcepted, a break and hold above 0.6100 would be to needed to trigger the move.
  • Key levels to watch, initial support at 0.6080 (Feb 28 & 29 lows) below here 0.6064 (Jan 23 lows) while a break of those levels opens up a retest of the yearly lows at 0.6050. To the upside, initial resistance at 0.6113 (Feb 29 highs) above here and break above opens a move to 0.6140 area (20 & 50-Day EMAs). while short term further upside will likely be limited as NZ$2.1b option strikes roll off at a strikes of 0.6170-90 between now and March 5th
  • RBNZ reports have shown that mortgage stress is hitting home buyers with non-performing loans surging 10% in the past month, with the non-performing housing loans ratio now at 10-year highs, the ratio sits at 0.5% all all outstanding loans, however it's important to note that during the GFC this ratio hit 1.2%
  • Elsewhere, Fonterra Jan Milk Collection fell -1.8% YoY, the decrease was due to lower collections in the north Island as unfavorable weather impacted production, Corelogic Houses Prices were out coming in at -1.4% vs -2.7% prior, while earlier today NZ Consumer Confidence rose 0.96% MoM vs 0.05% prior, Consumer Confidence Index rises to 94.5 vs 93.6 prior and Jan Home-Building Approvals fell 8.8% MoM vs +3.7% prior
  • Looking ahead: RBNZ Gov Orr will be speaking to Canterbury Chamber at 11:05am AEST
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