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KIWI: NZD/USD sits at $0.6260, marginally lower on the day.
- A decline in NZ business confidence, indicated by the latest ANZ survey,
dragged the pair lower through yesterday's Asia-Pac session. A beat in China's
Caixin m'fing PMI brought a brief reprieve, but wasn't enough to counter the
earlier bearish mood and the pair retreated further to touch a fresh YtD low of
$0.6250. Recovery attempts in European hours were rather limited and ultimately
wiped out during a slide into the WMR fix.
- A clean break under $0.6255/50, which represent the Sep 20 & 23
lows/yesterday's YtD low, would help keep up the downside momentum, bringing
into play the lower Bollinger band (2%)/1.0% 10-DMA envelope at $0.6226/25.
Bulls would be pleased by a recovery of $0.6297, the 23.6% retracement of the
recent slide, as well as of the next round figure above.
- Kiwibank now exp. the RBNZ to bring the OCR down to 0.5% in a single move at
the November meeting, while the risk of a further 25bps cut later on is
- Focus turns to the most recent GDT auction, due in the London afternoon.