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NZD/USD Still Struggling Above 0.5700, But Firmer On Crosses

NZD

NZD/USD is struggling to get a foothold above the 0.5700 level. The pair was last at 0.5690/95. We ran out of momentum near 0.5710, with the 20 day EMA at 0.5705 continuing to provide short-term resistance.

  • A modest USD bid elsewhere has also likely curbed kiwi gains. EUR is off around 0.20% so far for the session. US equity futures are also lower, but still up strongly for the session.
  • NZD is outperforming on crosses within the G10 space, with yield moves continuing to shift in the currency's favor. The NZ-US 2yr swap spread is up a further 10bps today, back above +47bps. This comes as the NZ 2yr swap added another 13bps to 5.30% today.
  • AUD/NZD has been range bound, but the market bias appears to be fading upticks closer to 1.1100. The pair last sat near 1.1080.
  • RBNZ dated OIS now prices a peak OCR of just over 5.40%, with ~78bp of tightening priced in for next month’s meeting.
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