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NZD/USD Up +2% In The Past Week, Trade Figures Print Soon

NZD

NZD/USD couldn't sustain another probe above its 20-day EMA (0.5699 currently), running out of momentum just above 0.5740 overnight. Continued hawkish Fed rhetoric, coupled with fresh cyclical highs in US yields, helped the USD recover.

  • We are back to 0.5680 currently. On the downside recent support has been evident around 0.5650, beyond that is yesterday's low just under 0.5625. Still, the currency is the clear winner over the past week in the G10 space, up over 2.1% at this stage, with the AUD next best at +1.30%. Coming up shortly is September trade figures.
  • There are no consensus estimates for the trade figures. Last month the deficit printed close to -NZ$2.5bn, fresh record wides. Imports (NZ$7.93bn) continued to outpace exports (NZ$5.48bn) by a decent margin.
  • The weaker external trade backdrop has held back NZD this year, even as domestic interest rates have surged.
  • This external balance difference is very noticeable against AUD, although this week the AUD/NZD cross has been more driven by declining yield differentials (in AU-NZ terms), post the NZ CPI beat.
  • The AUD/NZD cross has been more range bound in the past 24hrs, although we sit close to recent lows currently (last 1.1060).
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