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NZD: NZD/USD Pares Monday's Losses, Employment Data Inline

NZD
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  • The NZD/USD has now recovered all the losses made following the weekend headlines of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and ending a 6 day run of negative days to close +0.34% at 0.5649, this comes after being down over 2% on Monday.
  • There has been little reaction to the NZD following employment data.
  • The kiwi  has made a strong recovery after making new yearly lows of 0.5515 on Monday,  technical indicators are mixed with the MACD printing green bars, while the RSI indicator has ticked up to 48. We trades right on the 20-day EMA now, with major resistance is 0.5710 (50-day EMA), to the downside a break back below the Monday lows of 0.5515, would be needed to test the 2022 lows of 0.5500
  • New Zealand’s jobless rate was 5.1% in Q4, matching estimates. Employment fell 0.1% q/q (vs. -0.2% est.) and 1.1% y/y (vs. -0.9% est.). The participation rate declined slightly to 71.0%. Average hourly earnings rose 1.3% q/q, while non-government wages, including overtime, increased 0.6% q/q
  • Global Dairy Trade prices rose, with whole milk powder increased 4.54% to $4,169/ton from $3,988/ton. The weighted average price for all milk products reached $4,296/ton, while the GDT price index climbed 3.7%.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is holding steady with the market pricing in a 92% of a 50bps cut this month, and now a cumulative 136bps of cut by November 2025, back near the early Jan levels.
  • Expiries: 0.5700 (NZD379.1m), 0.5900 (NZD350m). Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5525 (NZD680m Feb. 6), 0.5395 (NZD471.2m Feb. 6)
  • Later we have ANZ Commodity Price.
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  • The NZD/USD has now recovered all the losses made following the weekend headlines of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and ending a 6 day run of negative days to close +0.34% at 0.5649, this comes after being down over 2% on Monday.
  • There has been little reaction to the NZD following employment data.
  • The kiwi  has made a strong recovery after making new yearly lows of 0.5515 on Monday,  technical indicators are mixed with the MACD printing green bars, while the RSI indicator has ticked up to 48. We trades right on the 20-day EMA now, with major resistance is 0.5710 (50-day EMA), to the downside a break back below the Monday lows of 0.5515, would be needed to test the 2022 lows of 0.5500
  • New Zealand’s jobless rate was 5.1% in Q4, matching estimates. Employment fell 0.1% q/q (vs. -0.2% est.) and 1.1% y/y (vs. -0.9% est.). The participation rate declined slightly to 71.0%. Average hourly earnings rose 1.3% q/q, while non-government wages, including overtime, increased 0.6% q/q
  • Global Dairy Trade prices rose, with whole milk powder increased 4.54% to $4,169/ton from $3,988/ton. The weighted average price for all milk products reached $4,296/ton, while the GDT price index climbed 3.7%.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is holding steady with the market pricing in a 92% of a 50bps cut this month, and now a cumulative 136bps of cut by November 2025, back near the early Jan levels.
  • Expiries: 0.5700 (NZD379.1m), 0.5900 (NZD350m). Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5525 (NZD680m Feb. 6), 0.5395 (NZD471.2m Feb. 6)
  • Later we have ANZ Commodity Price.