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NZD: NZD/USD Sees Small Bounce, Still Remains In Bearish Trend

NZD
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  • NZD/USD edged slightly higher on Monday, closing the session +0.22% at 0.5569, rebounding from multi-year lows but remaining under bearish pressure. The RSI at 31 signals persistent oversold conditions, while a weakening MACD suggests limited bullish momentum
  • Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, with spot trading below all key moving averages, the pair is at risk of testing the 13-year low of 0.5470 if it breaks below 0.5500. Initial support is 0.5543 (Jan 10 lows), while to the upside a break above 0.5643 (20-day EMA) before any sort of momentum change can occur.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap rose 6bps on Monday, closing at -87.5bps. On Friday it hitting a new yearly lows of -95.5bps just off all time lows of -100bps
  • NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows improved business confidence in Q4, with a net 16% of firms expecting economic improvement and 9% anticipating better trading in Q1. However, challenges persist, as 26% reported worse trading conditions in Q4, while 15% expect to raise prices in Q1.
  • Leveraged funds raised their net short position on the NZD to 13,547 contracts a 15% jump from prior, the most in more than five years, while Asset managers saw 3% just in short positions, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the week ended Jan. 7.
  • No large nearby strikes Tues. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5875 (NZD606m Jan. 15), 0.5885 (NZD453.7m Jan. 16), 0.6075 (NZD425.8m Jan. 15)
  • The local calendar is empty today
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  • NZD/USD edged slightly higher on Monday, closing the session +0.22% at 0.5569, rebounding from multi-year lows but remaining under bearish pressure. The RSI at 31 signals persistent oversold conditions, while a weakening MACD suggests limited bullish momentum
  • Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, with spot trading below all key moving averages, the pair is at risk of testing the 13-year low of 0.5470 if it breaks below 0.5500. Initial support is 0.5543 (Jan 10 lows), while to the upside a break above 0.5643 (20-day EMA) before any sort of momentum change can occur.
  • The NZ-US 2yr swap rose 6bps on Monday, closing at -87.5bps. On Friday it hitting a new yearly lows of -95.5bps just off all time lows of -100bps
  • NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows improved business confidence in Q4, with a net 16% of firms expecting economic improvement and 9% anticipating better trading in Q1. However, challenges persist, as 26% reported worse trading conditions in Q4, while 15% expect to raise prices in Q1.
  • Leveraged funds raised their net short position on the NZD to 13,547 contracts a 15% jump from prior, the most in more than five years, while Asset managers saw 3% just in short positions, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the week ended Jan. 7.
  • No large nearby strikes Tues. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5875 (NZD606m Jan. 15), 0.5885 (NZD453.7m Jan. 16), 0.6075 (NZD425.8m Jan. 15)
  • The local calendar is empty today