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BONDS: NZGBS: Another Heavy Session, Monthly Price Indictors Tomorrow

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

NZGBs closed 4-9bps cheaper, with the 5-year underperforming, as the fall-out from yesterday’s upbeat NZIER QSBO. 

  • Once again, today’s move reflected $-bloc underperformance, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials ~6bps wider.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s directionless session. Focus turns to today’s CPI inflation data for December where rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
  • Swap rates closed 7-9bps higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 7bps firmer across meetings, with late 2025 leading. 45bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 103bps by November 2025. Pricing for the November meeting is some 35bps firmer than Friday’s closing level.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see food prices and a range of other monthly price indicators for December ahead of BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI on Friday. December price data are likely to show inflation pressures remained subdued. That adds to the case for the RBNZ to deliver further easing.
  • Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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NZGBs closed 4-9bps cheaper, with the 5-year underperforming, as the fall-out from yesterday’s upbeat NZIER QSBO. 

  • Once again, today’s move reflected $-bloc underperformance, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials ~6bps wider.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s directionless session. Focus turns to today’s CPI inflation data for December where rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
  • Swap rates closed 7-9bps higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 7bps firmer across meetings, with late 2025 leading. 45bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 103bps by November 2025. Pricing for the November meeting is some 35bps firmer than Friday’s closing level.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see food prices and a range of other monthly price indicators for December ahead of BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI on Friday. December price data are likely to show inflation pressures remained subdued. That adds to the case for the RBNZ to deliver further easing.
  • Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.