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BONDS: NZGBS: Bear-Steepener As ACGB Spillover Fades

BONDS
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NZGBs closed showing a bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 6-7bps higher. 

  • NZ commodity export prices rose 0.2% m/m in December versus +2.9% in November, according to ANZ Bank.
  • NZGBs rallied initially with ACGBs on the back of a drop in Australian Trimmed Mean CPI in November, but this proved fleeting. By the close, there was close to no net change in NZGB yields versus pre-data levels despite ACGBs holding 3-5bps richer. The NZ-AU 10-year differential widened by 3bps on the day.
  • Cash US tsys are flat in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bear-steepener. The NZ-US 10-year yield differential is unchanged on the day.
  • Reminder, much of Thursday's US data has been moved to Wednesday (Wholesale Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims) as well as the 30Y Bond auction re-open to avoid conflicts with Thursday's Federal Holiday/day of Mourning for former President Carter.
  • Swap rates closed 1-7bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps firmer. 51bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 125bps by November 2025.
  • The local calendar is empty for the rest of the week. The next release of data is Monday, with Building Permits and Filled Jobs on tap. 
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NZGBs closed showing a bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 6-7bps higher. 

  • NZ commodity export prices rose 0.2% m/m in December versus +2.9% in November, according to ANZ Bank.
  • NZGBs rallied initially with ACGBs on the back of a drop in Australian Trimmed Mean CPI in November, but this proved fleeting. By the close, there was close to no net change in NZGB yields versus pre-data levels despite ACGBs holding 3-5bps richer. The NZ-AU 10-year differential widened by 3bps on the day.
  • Cash US tsys are flat in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bear-steepener. The NZ-US 10-year yield differential is unchanged on the day.
  • Reminder, much of Thursday's US data has been moved to Wednesday (Wholesale Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims) as well as the 30Y Bond auction re-open to avoid conflicts with Thursday's Federal Holiday/day of Mourning for former President Carter.
  • Swap rates closed 1-7bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps firmer. 51bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 125bps by November 2025.
  • The local calendar is empty for the rest of the week. The next release of data is Monday, with Building Permits and Filled Jobs on tap.