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BONDS: NZGBS: Bear-Steepener To Start A Holiday Shortened Week

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper, with a steeper 2/10 curve, after US tsys finished last week mostly weaker and near the session’s worst levels. However, light holiday volumes persisted.

  • US tsys pared losses on Friday after Wholesale Inventories came out lower than expected with a modest down-revision to the prior, Retail Inventories were in line with expectations, and the Advanced Goods Trade Balance came out a little wider than October's, with the $102.9B shortfall above $98.3B prior (and $101.2B expected).
  • US markets will be closed on Wednesday for the New Year's Day holiday; otherwise, they will have full sessions for the week's balance. US Data includes MNI PMI and Pending Home Sales on Monday, FHFA housing data on Tuesday, weekly claims and construction spending on Thursday, and ISMs on Friday.
  • The local calendar is empty today and will remain so until the release of CoreLogic Home Values on January 2.
  • The NZ-US 10-year yield differential is 3bps lower at -18bps, its lowest level since late 2020.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps lower, with the 2s10s curve unchanged.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 54bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 125bps by November 2025.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper, with a steeper 2/10 curve, after US tsys finished last week mostly weaker and near the session’s worst levels. However, light holiday volumes persisted.

  • US tsys pared losses on Friday after Wholesale Inventories came out lower than expected with a modest down-revision to the prior, Retail Inventories were in line with expectations, and the Advanced Goods Trade Balance came out a little wider than October's, with the $102.9B shortfall above $98.3B prior (and $101.2B expected).
  • US markets will be closed on Wednesday for the New Year's Day holiday; otherwise, they will have full sessions for the week's balance. US Data includes MNI PMI and Pending Home Sales on Monday, FHFA housing data on Tuesday, weekly claims and construction spending on Thursday, and ISMs on Friday.
  • The local calendar is empty today and will remain so until the release of CoreLogic Home Values on January 2.
  • The NZ-US 10-year yield differential is 3bps lower at -18bps, its lowest level since late 2020.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps lower, with the 2s10s curve unchanged.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 54bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 125bps by November 2025.