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NZGBS: Cheaper, Boosted By JGBs, Awaits US PCE Deflator

BONDS

NZGBs closed cheaper with the 2-year and 10-year benchmark yields 6bp and 3bp higher. With domestic data and headlines light, the local market had been content to track US Tsys ahead of US PCE Deflator data later today. The local market however received a boost from JGBs late in the session following the BoJ policy decision.

  • Swap rates are 5-9bp higher with implied swap spreads slightly wider.
  • RBNZ dated OIS closed 2-10bp firmer across meetings with early ’24 leading. May meeting closed 2bp firmer with 22bp of tightening priced.
  • While ANZ Consumer Confidence unexpectedly increased by 2.1% M/M in April, the overall level of confidence remains low, reflecting the impact of rising costs and worsening household balance sheets.
  • Next week’s local calendar highlight is the release of the March Quarter Labour Market Report on Wednesday. BBG consensus expects some cooling in tight labour market conditions with the unemployment rate forecast to increase to 3.6% from 3.4% in Q4. Slowing demand for labour and increasing supply, due to an inflow of migrant workers, should dampen wage pressures and core inflation, in time.
  • Ahead of that data, the RBA will hand down its policy decision on Tuesday.
  • Until then, all eyes will be on the release late today of the March PCE Deflator after yesterday’s stagflation-like Q1 GDP report.
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