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NZGBS: Cheaper, Subdued Start To A Packed Week Of Data For Global Bonds

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2bps cheaper after a similar-sized move for US tsys overnight. US tsys finished the NY session with yields 2-4bps higher.

  • Despite the anticipation surrounding a week filled with key global economic data, starting with Japan's National CPI today, Monday was notably subdued. Investors will closely monitor CPI data releases in Germany, the Euro Area, and Australia in the coming days, alongside PCE deflator updates in the US. Additionally, the global calendar highlights key events such as US ISM reports, China PMIs, and Australian Retail Sales figures.
  • Locally, the highlight will be the RBNZ Policy Decision on Wednesday. Bloomberg consensus is nearly unanimous (19 of the 21 surveyed economists) in expecting a no-change result for the OCR. Only ANZ and TD are calling for a 25bp hike to 5.75%.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer across meetings. A 30% chance of a 25bp hike is priced for this week’s meeting, with an expected terminal OCR of 5.65% (a 60% chance of a 25bp hike) for the May meeting. A cumulative 40bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Today, the local and Australian calendars are empty.
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