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BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Little Changed After Reversing Early Weakness

BONDS
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NZGBs exhibited a mixed performance across various benchmarks on the first trading day of the year. Yields fluctuated between a decrease of 1bp and an increase of 1bp. The 10-year NZGB yield stood at 4.42%. 

  • This slight variation in yields suggested that the market is stabilising following recent monetary policy adjustments by the RBNZ. In November 2024, the RBNZ reduced the official cash rate by 50bps to 4.25%, signalling the potential for further easing to reach a neutral rate estimated between 2.5% and 3.5% by the end of 2025.
  • Cash US tsys didn’t deal in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan still out for its extended New Year’s break. TYH5 is, however, +0-05 versus NY closing levels at 108-31.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 2bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly softer across meetings. 55bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 124bps by November 2025.
  • The local calendar will be light again next week, with ANZ Commodity Prices as the sole release.
  • Later today the global calendar will see the Fed’s Barkin and ECB’s Lane speaking. US December manufacturing ISM, German December unemployment and UK November lending data will also be released.
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NZGBs exhibited a mixed performance across various benchmarks on the first trading day of the year. Yields fluctuated between a decrease of 1bp and an increase of 1bp. The 10-year NZGB yield stood at 4.42%. 

  • This slight variation in yields suggested that the market is stabilising following recent monetary policy adjustments by the RBNZ. In November 2024, the RBNZ reduced the official cash rate by 50bps to 4.25%, signalling the potential for further easing to reach a neutral rate estimated between 2.5% and 3.5% by the end of 2025.
  • Cash US tsys didn’t deal in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan still out for its extended New Year’s break. TYH5 is, however, +0-05 versus NY closing levels at 108-31.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 2bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly softer across meetings. 55bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 124bps by November 2025.
  • The local calendar will be light again next week, with ANZ Commodity Prices as the sole release.
  • Later today the global calendar will see the Fed’s Barkin and ECB’s Lane speaking. US December manufacturing ISM, German December unemployment and UK November lending data will also be released.